A few weeks ago the question was WHEN Dilma Rousseff would win Brazil’s presidential election not IF.

Polls showed she could easily win an outright majority in the first round. But new polls released over the last 24 hours show the contest is up for grabs as the race tightens considerably.

A Census poll released on Thursday morning gave her 46.8 per cent and José Serra of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party 42.7 per cent.

The two other polls released on Wednesday night showed Rousseff holding leads of 48-40, according to a Vox Populi sample, and 49-43, according to Ibope. The polls were the first to be taken after Sunday night’s confrontational  TV debate.

More details as to why the gap has narrowed in my Financial Times piece here.

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